Belarus, a landlocked country in Eastern Europe, has found itself in the global spotlight in recent years due to its increasingly authoritarian regime under the leadership of Alexander Lukashenko. Often dubbed "Europe’s last dictatorship," Belarus has maintained close ties with Russia, led by President Vladimir Putin, leading many to speculate about the extent of Putin’s influence over Belarusian politics.
Since coming to power in 1994, Alexander Lukashenko has consolidated control over Belarus, stifling political opposition and dissent through a combination of censorship, intimidation, and electoral manipulation. The regime’s grip on power has only tightened in recent years, particularly following the disputed presidential election in 2020, which sparked widespread protests and allegations of electoral fraud.
Despite facing significant domestic and international pressure to democratize, Lukashenko has remained defiant, relying on support from Moscow to prop up his regime. Putin’s Russia has provided economic aid and political backing to Lukashenko, viewing Belarus as a strategically important ally in its sphere of influence in Eastern Europe. The close relationship between the two leaders has led many observers to characterize Belarus as a "puppet regime" of the Kremlin.
One of the key manifestations of Putin’s influence in Belarus is the integration of the two countries’ economies and security apparatuses. The establishment of the Russia-Belarus Union State in the late 1990s was intended to deepen economic and political ties between the two countries, effectively creating a single economic space. However, the union has been criticized for largely benefiting Russia at the expense of Belarus, which has become increasingly dependent on its larger neighbor for energy supplies and financial assistance.
Moreover, Belarus has aligned itself closely with Russia on foreign policy matters, often echoing Moscow’s positions on issues such as Ukraine, NATO expansion, and relations with the European Union. Lukashenko has consistently opposed any moves by Belarus to distance itself from Russia or seek closer ties with the West, fearing that such actions could jeopardize his regime’s stability and his personal grip on power.
The influence of Putin’s Russia over Belarus extends beyond economic and political spheres to include security and military cooperation. Belarus hosts Russian military bases and participates in joint military exercises with Russia, signaling its commitment to the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a military alliance dominated by Moscow. This close military partnership has raised concerns among Belarus’s neighbors and Western countries about the potential for Russian military intervention in the region.
Furthermore, Putin has provided unwavering support to Lukashenko’s regime in the face of international criticism and sanctions. Following the disputed presidential election in 2020 and the subsequent crackdown on opposition protests, Russia offered political backing to Lukashenko and pledged to provide assistance in maintaining internal stability. This support has emboldened Lukashenko to pursue a harsh crackdown on dissent, including mass arrests, censorship, and violence against protesters.
Despite the growing influence of Putin’s Russia over Belarus, the relationship between the two countries is not without tensions and complexities. While Lukashenko relies on Putin for political and economic support, he also seeks to maintain a degree of independence and autonomy to preserve his regime’s sovereignty and legitimacy. Belarusian officials have occasionally pushed back against Russian initiatives perceived as infringing on Belarus’s interests, highlighting the delicate balance of power between the two countries.
Moreover, the ongoing political crisis in neighboring Ukraine has added another layer of complexity to the relationship between Belarus and Russia. While both countries share concerns about the expansion of NATO and Western influence in the region, Lukashenko has sought to position Belarus as a mediator in the conflict, emphasizing its neutrality and its desire to maintain stability in the region. However, Belarus’s role in facilitating Russian military operations in Ukraine has drawn criticism from the international community and strained its relations with Western countries.
Belarus under Alexander Lukashenko’s leadership has increasingly become a puppet regime of Vladimir Putin’s Russia, with Moscow exerting significant influence over its political, economic, and security affairs. The close relationship between the two leaders has allowed Putin to consolidate Russia’s influence in Eastern Europe while providing Lukashenko with the support necessary to maintain his grip on power. However, the dynamics of the Belarus-Russia relationship remain complex, shaped by competing interests, geopolitical considerations, and domestic dynamics within both countries. As Belarus continues to navigate its relationship with Russia and the international community, the future of its authoritarian regime remains uncertain.